Step back and look at the big picture for a second. Some Gulf-front condos here are trading 20%, 25%, even 30% below where they sold at the top of this market in 2022. That's not a minor dip. Line up 2022 peak sales against what's happening right now, building by building, and this is one of the bigger pullbacks this market has seen in years.
I'm not going to tell you we've hit bottom... nobody can say that honestly. Rates or the broader market could still push some of these lower. But zoom out far enough and the scale of what's already happened is hard to ignore. And it isn't happening evenly.
Here's my honest read, for what it's worth: zoom out over the last decade or so, and this might be one of the better buying windows we've seen in that whole stretch. I can't promise that... nobody can. But when you look at the size of some of these pullbacks, it's worth taking seriously, not just scrolling past.
Here's what I don't want you to take from this: that every building is down the same amount, or that “the market's off 20%” tells you anything useful by itself. It doesn't. Some floor plans and some buildings have given back a third of their 2022 value. Others have barely moved. Knowing which is which is the whole game if you're buying right now.
This isn't every sale on the beach... it's eleven real comps I pulled as a sample — 2022 sale prices against current asking or just-closed prices on comparable units in the same buildings. There are dozens of buildings I didn't touch here, but these eleven are representative of the pattern I'm seeing across the broader Gulf-front market right now. I sorted them by bedroom count so you can see how it plays out size by size.
3-Bedroom Units: The Biggest Spreads
This is where the pullback shows up hardest, and where it varies the most.
Building | 2022 Sale | Now | Dollar Drop | % Drop |
Long Beach (penthouse) | $1,150,000 | $799,000 asking | -$351,000 | -30.5% |
Treasure Island | $1,187,500 | $880,000 asking | -$307,500 | -25.9% |
Calypso (3BR/3BA) | $1,300,000 | $998,000 asking | -$302,000 | -23.2% |
Sunrise Beach | $950,000 | $720,000 sold | -$230,000 | -24.2% |
Aqua (premier stack) | $1,160,000 | $950,000 asking | -$210,000 | -18.1% |
Gulf Crest | $1,065,000 | $889,000 asking | -$176,000 | -16.5% |
Six comps, six different stories. Long Beach's penthouse and Treasure Island are down roughly a quarter to nearly a third from their 2022 peaks. Real, meaningful pullbacks. Gulf Crest and Aqua's premier stack are holding a tighter range, closer to 16-18%. Same bedroom count, same general product, more than a 12-point spread in how much value came off. That's not noise. That's specific buildings and specific stacks still holding demand even in a soft market.
2-Bedroom Units: Fewer Data Points, Same Pattern
Building | 2022 Sale | Now | Dollar Drop | % Drop |
Calypso (2BR/2BA + bunk) | $860,000 | $595,000 sold | -$265,000 | -30.8% |
Palazzo | $875,000 | $677,500 closed | -$197,500 | -22.6% |
Both of these are closed sales, not asking prices... this is what buyers actually paid. Calypso's 2-bedroom-plus-bunk layout gave back nearly a third of its 2022 value. Palazzo — quieter, lower density, gated — held on to more of it. If you're comparing on price alone, Calypso looks like the deal. If you're comparing on which building is defending value better, that's Palazzo.
1-Bedroom Units: Smaller Dollars, Real Percentages
Building | 2022 Sale | Now | Dollar Drop | % Drop |
Calypso (1BR range) | $555,000 | $448,000 asking | -$107,000 | -19.3% |
Aqua (1BR/2BA) | $650,000 | $549,000 asking | -$101,000 | -15.5% |
Smaller price points, smaller dollar swings, but the percentages are just as real — 15-19% off 2022 pricing on entry-level Gulf-front units. If you felt priced out at the top, this is where the math has actually changed for you.
The One That Didn't Sell
Worth calling out on its own. A 4-bedroom at Majestic Beach sold for $970,000 in mid-2022. One came on the market this year asking $849,000 — a 12.5% discount, the smallest of any comp here — and it still expired unsold. A smaller discount didn't mean a faster sale. Pricing to the market isn't just “cheaper than 2022.” It's priced right for where the market actually is today. Those aren't always the same thing.
What I'd Take From This If I Were Buying
Let's look at the real numbers instead of the headline version. Remember, this sample of eleven is a window into a much bigger market, not the whole thing... but “down 20-something percent” is true on average across it, and that average hides more than it tells you. Some buildings have given back close to a third of their 2022 value — Calypso's 2BR-plus-bunk and the Long Beach penthouse both landed near 30%. Others, like Gulf Crest and Aqua's premier stack, are down closer to 15-18%. That tells you buyers are still paying up for those specific units even in this market.
If you're shopping right now, the question isn't “is this market on sale.” It clearly is. The question is which building, which floor plan, which specific unit gives you the real discount versus one that's still catching up to where the rest of the market already landed. That's a building-by-building, sometimes stack-by-stack conversation, not a market-wide one.
I'll say this plainly: I'm not telling you prices can't go lower from here. They might. What I can tell you is what's already happened, with real numbers, so you're not guessing.
And to be clear, price isn't the only reason to buy, and I know that. Rental return, personal use, wanting a place on the beach for your family... there are plenty of good reasons to buy that have nothing to do with what a comp did last year. This isn't me telling you price is the whole decision. It's just one more piece of it, and right now it's a piece worth paying attention to alongside everything else I cover on the market — you can find more of that on my YouTube channel and at durangroupfl.com.
If you want me to run this same comparison on a specific building or floor plan you're watching, call or text me — 850-290-0417 — and I'll pull the real comps for it.
