I get this question a lot right now, and I'd rather give you a straight answer than a pile of charts. So here it is, along with the local numbers behind it.
Lower rates would help. But they cut both ways.
If rates drop, buyers can afford more, and that part is good for you.
But a rate drop doesn't only wake up buyers. It can wake up sellers too. All the owners who have been waiting for a better number may list at the same time. Then those extra buyers have more to choose from.
And honestly, nobody knows when that happens, or if it does. This month rates went up.
Right now the average 30-year mortgage is 6.95%.
A year ago it was 6.26%, and in 2021 it was about 3%. I think 3% is the number most people still have in their head.
There are fewer buyers than there were before.
I looked at every sale that closed here from January 1 to September 22, and compared it to the same days in 2021.
• Homes: 985 sales in 2021. 732 this year. Down about a quarter.
• Gulf-front condos: 994 sales in 2021. 411 this year. Down more than half.
So there are fewer buyers out there than there were back when rates were around 3%.
There are fewer buyers than there were: home sales 985 to 732, gulf-front condo sales 994 to 411.
What that does to a buyer
This is the part I really want you to see. It's the same loan over the same 30 years, just at a different rate.
A $400,000 loan went from $1,686 a month to $2,648; $600,000 from $2,530 to $3,972; $800,000 from $3,373 to $5,296
Now flip it around.
$1,686 a month borrowed $400,000 in 2021 and about $255,000 today; $2,530 borrowed $600,000 and now $382,000; $3,373 borrowed $800,000 and now $510,000.
A buyer who could handle $1,686 a month borrowed $400,000 in 2021. Today that same payment borrows about $255,000.
At the $600,000 level, it's about $382,000 now. At $800,000, it's about $510,000.
Nothing about your property changed. Your buyer's payment did.
Homes and condos aren't the same story.
For homes, it looks like rates are doing most of the damage. Cash buyers are down about 14%. Buyers using a loan are down about 30%. That's more than twice as much. And about 7 out of 10 home buyers here use a loan.
For gulf-front condos, it's different. Cash buyers are down about 60%. Loan buyers are down about 57%. Almost the same.
If this were only about rates, you'd expect the cash buyers to hold up better, and they didn't. So I think there's more going on with condos, and the cost of owning is probably part of it: reserves (savings a building keeps for big repairs), inspections, assessments and insurance.
Three things to think about:
So, should you wait?
I don't know where rates are going, and honestly I'd be careful with anybody who says they do.
What I can tell you is what's actually selling here right now, and what today's buyers are able to pay.
If you want to see what that means for your place, call me at 850-290-0417.
More on this: what condo fees cover, selling a condo with an open permit, why your home isn't getting showings.
Numbers: Freddie Mac weekly rate survey, Sept 17, 2026. Federal Reserve, Sept 16, 2026. Closed sales from the Panama City Beach MLS, January 1 – September 22, 2021 and 2026.
